My Retirement Simulator

Use this free Retirement Simulator to run what-if scenarios on your portfolio using historical S&P 500 data. Simulate how different withdrawal strategies — the 4% Rule, Guyton-Klinger Guardrails, and Variable Percentage Withdrawal — would have played out across real market cycles, including crashes and bull markets. See your portfolio survive rate, longevity, and inflation-adjusted income in minutes.

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Longevity ? How long the portfolio lasted. Shows if it survived the full simulation period or depleted early

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End Portfolio ? Final portfolio value at the end of the simulation period

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Total Withdrawals ? Sum of all withdrawals taken throughout the entire simulation period

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Avg Withdrawal ? Average annual withdrawal amount across all years in the simulation

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Max Drawdown ? Largest percentage decline from peak portfolio value to trough during the simulation

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Worst Year ? Year with the lowest market return during the simulation period

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Best Decade ? Highest 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) during the simulation period

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Advanced Metrics
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Withdrawal Rates ? Withdrawal rates as a percentage of portfolio value: initial rate at start, median across all years, maximum rate reached, and final year rate

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Initial / Median / Max / Final

Sequence Risk ? Risk from poor market returns early in retirement. Compares first decade average returns vs overall period to assess if bad timing could deplete portfolio faster

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Peak Burn Rate ? The highest withdrawal amount taken in any single year during the simulation period

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Recovery Time ? Number of years it took for the portfolio to recover to within 99% of its peak after experiencing the worst drawdown

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Years to recover from worst drawdown

Safe Zone Years ? Number of years the portfolio remained above 80% of its previous peak. Higher percentages indicate more stability with fewer deep drawdowns.

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Inflation Impact ? Average annual inflation rate (CAGR) over the simulation period and comparison of real vs nominal total withdrawals

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Total Fees/Tax Drag ? Cumulative dollar amount lost to fees, taxes, and other portfolio costs over the entire simulation period

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Cumulative cost over simulation
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Annual Withdrawals
Year Age Portfolio Note
Run simulation to see milestones

Adjust Inputs
$750K Portfolio
4.0% Rate
50 Years

About This Retirement Simulator

This free retirement simulator lets you run scenario simulations on your retirement portfolio using historical market data. Enter your portfolio size, withdrawal rate, and time horizon to see how your money would have survived real historical periods — including the dot-com crash, 2008 financial crisis, and extended bull markets. Compare withdrawal strategies side-by-side and stress-test your retirement plan. Read our in-depth retirement withdrawal guide →

Why simulate instead of project?

A projection assumes the market returns the same percentage every year. Real retirements don't work that way: a crash in your first five years of withdrawals can sink a plan that looks comfortable on average — this is sequence of returns risk. The simulator replays your plan through every historical starting year in the S&P 500 record, each with its actual returns and inflation, and reports the percentage of sequences in which your money lasted. That survival rate tells you far more than any single line on a chart.

What is a safe withdrawal rate?

Historically, starting around 4% and adjusting for inflation survived nearly every 30-year period for a balanced portfolio. Longer horizons or conservative planning push that toward 3–3.5%. Test any rate here and read its historical success percentage directly.

What is the Guyton-Klinger guardrails strategy?

A dynamic strategy that sets guardrails around your withdrawal rate: when markets push the rate too high, you trim spending by a set step; when the portfolio grows enough, you take a raise. You trade some income stability for a much lower chance of depleting the portfolio.

What is Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)?

VPW withdraws a percentage of the current balance each year, rising with age. The portfolio can never be fully depleted ahead of schedule, but annual income moves with the market — best for retirees with flexible spending.

How many scenarios does the simulator run?

Every available starting year in the historical dataset becomes one complete retirement sequence. For a 30-year horizon, that is dozens of full 30-year replays — each with its own bear markets, recoveries, and inflation spikes.

Where to Go From Here

Stress-testing your plan is the last mile — make sure the inputs are right first. Estimate what your portfolio could grow to before retirement with the Compound Interest Estimator, find the savings rate that gets you there with the Savings Rate Calculator, or see your earliest possible exit with the FIRE Calculator. For a strategy-focused planning view of the same engine, try the Retirement Calculator.

This tool is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Results are estimates based on historical data and the assumptions you enter — past performance does not guarantee future results.